2012-11-01
2012-11-30
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of these states, in particular in iowa and nevada, democrats have it locked up with early vote. in ohio they have a good position with early vote, but it depends on who turns out. republicans are coming out in big numbers in the rural areas, and the question i think for democrats is, how do we do in those urban areas, it particular the top ten counties? the thing i would like to stress is, you know, when you have an election that is this close and it's pretty obvious to say that the obvious, but it is going to be turnout, and democrats have got to be really focused and that is individual democrats coming out to vote. do not believe that this thing is over by any stretch of the imagination. this is going to be a very tight election. >> who doesn't believe that at this point, chris? >> you know, i sometimes hear when i see these pundits talk about their forecasts about what the election is going to be, i get it. if you look at the real clear politics averages, you can make that prediction. i'll make that prediction and think president obama will win. when you have so many polls clustered around the

votes for sure and he'll probably get in nevada which is six votes, that brings him to 243 votes. if he picked up ohio, then he would have, i think, 261 votes. he would need only nine more votes to climb the presidency. ohio is always important, especially to republicans, i'd say, this year more important than ever. >> we've been talking to voters in all states as they've left the polls today. anthony mason is in the exiting poll information. what did the voters in ohio say? >> the battleground states. the polls have closed, all three of them still right here in the middle in the toss-up column. we want to turn our eyes to ohio and the 18 electoral votes as we've been talking about. look in ohio, it makes up a quarter of the electorate there. john mccain and barack obama just about split this vote. romney has slightly a better advantage, but again, very close. we asked the white working class voters who's more in touch with people like you? again, tight. but asked as who would do a better job with the economy? romney has a big advantage. 53% to 44%. these are white working class voters

the president will carry nevada. some republicans push back but let's give nevada to the president. hypothetical here, folks. that would put the president at 243 to 206. you need 270 to win. let's see if romney can find the magic to get to 270. the state of iowa, the president will end there. that's his final rally. the president with a lead there. it's small. the romney campaign says it's still in play but the president has consistently led by a small margin. you will see more and more of that across the midwest. you mentioned governor romney going to cleveland tomorrow. let's look at the latest polling in ohio. no republican ever won the white house without it. mathematically can he get there without it, yes. is it probable, no. here's the latest poll of polls. cnn putting together the average of seven public polls, 50-47. so a very competitive race but again, the president has consistently been ahead by a couple in ohio. governor romney needs to win on the ground and win big on the ground tomorrow to carry that state. in a close election like this, sometimes the little guys matter. new hampsh

this early vote has turned out. look at this. colorado, 77% has already voted. nevada. 72%. north carolina, 63% has already voted. in florida 53%. iowa 44%. and ohio 31%. john dickerson and i were talking about this earlier today. we could have most of the results already by the people that have come out early and that's why the campaigns spent so much time on getting out the vote early, this ground game on these early votes. >> pelley: we'll come back to you early and often. john dickerson is our cbs news political director. john is going to be showing us the various ways that the candidates can get to the 270 electoral votes necessary to twin presidency. john? >> well, first, scott, let's follow up on what bob was saying. we're going to dispatch with 41 of the states, the majority of the country cbs estimates based on the polling that those states are either going to go to barack obama or to mitt romney. that gives barack obama a start where he's likely to get 237 electoral votes, mitt romney is likely to get 191 electoral votes. so here we are at the beginning of the evening, nothing ha

4 points in washington and pennsylvania. leading by more than 2 in nevada, ohio and iowa. as a slighter margins in new hampshire and colorado, governor romney only leads in more at a point in florida and is narrowly ahead in virginia. that gives a reason for them to, let's say, be concerned. >> they need to be concerned because it is not just the enthuse yack enthuse em that's missing p. this is what barack obama does better than anyone else. man test right now in the early vote of look at nevada, north carolina, iowa. mitt romney with needs to win 54 to 60% of the remaining votes in the states in order to drop into the victory. that's a huge lift. i think when you couple the fact that democratic base is much more fired up with the fact that obama for america has been organizing for the last four years. they keep talking about pennsylvania, you can't drop into pennsylvania the weekend before an election, and expect to tip the vote just by buying ads when you have the other team with a fantastic ground operation. >> drive by campaigning won't do it. when you look at pennsy

that had large hispanic populations. like nevada, like colorado, like florida. so i think they should be very worried when it comes to these battleground states, and even in ohio, where you have 166,000 registered latino voters going out to the polls, and an election this tight, they could absolutely be the deciding factor. i think it's going to be the october surprise of this election. >> i thought we already had one of those. >> early november. >> let me ask you, because we were asking our viewers before the break, if you could run the campaign in the last three days, what would you do if you have the reins of the campaign. if you were in charge of the romney campaign, anna, what would you do at this point? >> i think exactly what they are doing. they're having big rallies. showing a great deal of republican unity. they're showing a great deal of momentum. they've got over a hundred of the top republican surrogates out there fanning around the country, going to the swing states. so you've got to get your base out at this point. pretty mu there are very few undecided that are left. i

million. missouri, a candidate's spending $22 million, $8 million in outside money. nevada, $18 million. independent line, good morning. who is going to win? caller: i think that mr. obama is going to win, but i had three points to make and i would like you to pick one. beer summit, take one for the team, or buyer's remorse. can you pick one? host: i will let you pick. my job is to get to the phone calls. caller: let me have all three, then. host: go ahead. caller: mitt romney will never have a beer summit, he will never mediate. nothing will ever happen like that, first of all. he does not drink. take one for the team? i do not think he would take one for the team. i think he would make america team america. he would make team america take one for him. his religiosity, he may want to force that on america when we are not ready. also, the buyer's remorse. i wrote down the we would be darned if we do and donned if we do not. we will wind up with more gridlock and the republicans will wind up with mr. obama anyway. host: ok. "washington post," the annual crystal ball addition. we are taki

contest. barack obama was leading before the election and then prevailed 52-46%. nevada also expected to be in the president's column, and indeed it turned out to be. let's go to new hampshire. this is a bit of a home state for mitt romney because he has a vacation home there. he spent a lot of time vacationing during the primaries. he won the primary, but not the general election in new hampshire. to north carolina a close race and we called it for mitt romney, a three-point win. the state of ohio, this was really the make or break for the mitt romney campaign. in the end he lost it by two percentage points. a lot of it had to do with his position on the auto bailout. virginia an important state for mitt romney to win. he had to run the table of florida, north carolina, virginia and ohio and he lost virginia. let's move to wisconsin. his running mate paul ryan born and raised in wisconsin. it didn't help him there. barack obama wins with wise -- wins wisconsin. the state of michigan mitt romney was born in michigan and raised there. his father was the governor for two terms. barack o

, this is without nevada, this puts him at 271, this what is they believe is their fastest, most narrowest path. now, why is romney doing what he's doing with florida today? virginia. don't forget north carolina is one that they're counting on. new hampshire and then ohio. because ohio, look at that, it's right on the number. if all the states he visits today he carries, that's what he's doing. both of them are visiting, andrea, their narrowest paths to 270. i took you to the 271 path for the president, and then you saw the 270 path if you will for romney. now everything in between, what's a great night for the president, take you to that quickly. that would mean, winning ohio, but the one state i think they feel the least bit about is in north carolina. leave florida in romney's column. i think ultimately this is what we're looking at. something right in the 300 range is most realistic good night for the president. you go to mitt romney and what they think their most realistic be good night and why you see he has a little higher ceiling, bring these states back, virginia, iowa, which by the way i t

of the hour we'll take you to nevada and wisconsin. first, back to sole dad. >>> at the end of the day, it's all going to be about the math. in order to win, you have to hit the magic number of 270 electoral votes. let's get to christine romans who is crunching the numbers. >> the rose to 270. what if it were a draw at 269? it's possible. there are four 269 scenarios. statistically, there are 120 different scenarios. four with the swing states. this is hypothetical, remember. the map is assuming that states that are actually leaning go in the direction that they're leaning right now. wisconsin, ohio, and new hampshire, new hampshire with the four electoral votes, if they go for obama and romney wins nevada, colorado, iowa, virginia, and the 29 over there in florida, then you're at a tie. worst nightmare for both parties. 269 each. now a note for iowa here, this is assuming it goes red, it goes for romney with the six electoral votes. recent polls there showing a slight lead, actually, for obama. if wisconsin and ohio vote democrat, you know, technically you could think -- you could conclud

: what about early voting in nevada? >> both colorado and nevada are early voting states. 80% of registered voters are vote. 56%, nevada. the gop is battling harry reid's political machine. a growing population has a voting edge of -- voting edge of 90,000. despite obama's 2-point statewide lead they can make it up in reno and democratic turnout, early voting is down 5 points over 2008. martha: thanks, william. bill: we heard for several years that the economy is issue number one for you at home. if that's the case, how does this race break today? fair and balanced debate on that in a moment. martha: a handful of swing states that will likely determine the outcome of this election. which states fall into that category and why? bill: the race seems to be tightening by the day. why does one political analyst predict a landslide. >> you watched what happened in this country the last four years with an interview. you hope that president obama would live up with his promise to bring people together, to solve the big problems. he hasn't. i will. [cheers and applause] but don't just

, turnout is crucial. >> turnout has been crucial for three weeks. in other words, in colorado, nevada, north carolina, it may have been crucial before today, but on election day, as nancy mentioned in her piece, republicans have to turn their base out. >> stay with us, we'll be speaking with both campaigns this morning. we begin with david axelrod. david, good morning. >> good morning, charlie. happy election day. >> well, thank you. happy election day to you and everybody else in the great state of illinois. so tell me what it is that's most crucial today for you to win. >> well, you've been using the word, which is turnout. we've been expecting a close election for a year and a half. we've built a tremendous organization. we've got 200,000 or more election shifts volunteers set up. we've got 5,000 stations in neighborhoods across the battleground states. and now it's time to turn out that vote. and that's what this election is going to be about. we are happy about those early vote numbers. those early vote numbers are very significant. we go in with a great advantage. >> one thing t

. let's take a look. if president obama wins nevada, iowa and pennsylvania, nevada, iowa, and pennsylvania, and let's say mitt romney wins colorado, new hampshire, and florida. new hampshire, colorado, that leaves three toss-ups. wisconsin, ohio, and the old dominion. so if the candidates split, ohio and wisconsin, neither one of them gets to the 270 electoral votes needed to win without virginia. and the final nbc news wall street journal poll before this election, it shows virginia in a statistic call tie. back to you. >> the following two breaking stories tonight. a commuter train hit and killed a person. no word on what led to the identity of the victim. shuttles have been taking some passengers to their death nations. delays are not expected to have an impact on the commute in the morning. >>> a 75-year-old man was critically injured in an apartment fire. and firefighters found him in the basement of the apartments on generals highway in crownsville. the cause of this fire is still under investigation. >> tonight, a father is facing charges after his 4-year-old child

states, iowa, montana, nevada, and utah, two of them are going to be watched really closely. those, of course, are iowa and nevada. the "real clear politics" polling average in iowa right now shows president obama ahead by two and in nevada president obama ahead by 2.7. then later in the night at 11:00 p.m. and then 1:00 a.m., we'll have california, hawaii, idaho, oregon, washington, and then the last poll closing in alaska. unless this is a very strange night, those races will be interesting for governors races and senate and house races and state issues, but not necessarily for the presidency. unless things go very, very differently than expected to go. this is how your election viewing is going to unfold hour by hour on tuesday night. if you just exclude the states for the presidential race where everybody pretty much knows exactly how it's going to go and just the states where there is some question as to what's going to happen, here is a clip and save thing for you about these states. the battlegrounds. all right? states that you know are going to be important and everybody th

marquez is in las vegas, nevada. ed lavandera is in denver, colorado, for us this morning. john zarrella comes to us live from plantation, florida. we want to begin with complete comprehensive coverage with john berman checking in to see how our correspondents are faring. >> thanks, soledad. the candidates are all over the place today. president obama and mitt romney hold atriallies in seven states today. a final frenetic day of campaigning across the battleground. for the president, he begins in wisconsin, a state that has voted true blue since 1984 but it is almost always close. and with paul ryan a native wisconsin son on the republican ticket, the obama team is taking no chances. they've called in the cavalry to help, including the boss, bruce springsteen to seal the deal. dan lothian is live in madison, wisconsin. good morning, dan. >> good morning, and you're right, bruce springsteen will be warming up the crowd here with a 30-minute concert before the president comes out. the campaign has been using these big names not only to draw in big audiences, but also to energize them. i ca

: in the senate races, we are in michigan, wisconsin, nevada, the governor's race in new hampshire. we do 75 congressional races. we started off with 53 incumbents going into this election. we do some polling for the romney campaign. host: what is happening for the wisconsin senate race? guest: i did some polling for scott walker. we have it right in terms of polling as opposed to what you are seeing in the public polling. we have a net edge presidentially and in the senate race going for tom thompson in that senate race. what we are seeing there we are seeing in all of the campaigns. we have closed the gaps that democrats have in those states. guest: we see a much more partisan atmosphere than in 2008. the democrat in wisconsin has a slight lead. that will be a close race on election day. wisconsin is a little bit closer than it has been before. in the end, obama wins that state by two or three points. host: i want to put on the screen what is happening in colorado, alabama, north carolina. the number of votes cast as of yesterday. in colorado, 1.5 million votes cast. 35% for democrats, 37%

nevada. this has turned into a very big night for president obama. you had the sense from campaign aide early on as the polls started closing that they new things were trend in their direction and they were feeling confident. the president wrote two different speeches for tonight. a victory speech. and a concession speech. he was prepared for any scenario. tonight here in this room, before, newly 20,000, very excited supporters, he gets to deliver that victory speech. >> we are an american family and we rise or fall together as one nation and as one people. [ cheers and applause ] >> reporter: reporting from chicago, obama campaign headquarters, karen travers for abc news. >> i'm brandi hitt in boston where the room fell silent the minute it was announced mitt romney lost the key battleground state of ohio and then the election. romney supporters were convince heed would win some of the key battleground states. he just fell short in states like pennsylvania, ohio and also virginia. here is what mitt romney told his supporters after he called president obama to congratulate him. >> this

to hold. >> ohio? >> you skipped on me. >> nevada. >> nevada. close but to dean heller. >> all right. next one? >> ohio. it's closed up but brown wins. >> does he outperform the president by what, two points? >> i don't know. >> yeah, yeah. >> if you were to guess, it's going to be a tight race? >> florida, nelson beats mak. then we get to virginia. >> where are you there? >> i guess i would give kane maybe a tiny finger on the scale. >> give it to blue? >> i don't know. >> we'll put it there for now. that gets us through the presidential toss-ups. let's go to the red states if you will. these are a ton of great states. >> flake wins. >> montana, that's scary. everybody, both sides say it's really too close. >> the libtarian candidate is going to make the winning number. >> it could. >> i guess he gets a couple. this guy john tester up a point or two and the question is does that save him? let's do edge tester. >> all right. next one? north dakota right next door. >> berg wins. it's very very close. >> the same way you feel about montana. >> yeah. >> not quite as close. >> yeah. >> let's s

nevada, those four states, romney could win with pennsylvania and then the other swing states. >> virginia -- >> and florida. it's not his best -- it's not where he would want to be at this point in the campaign. but looking at where the polls have been in ohio all year, i think they think it's worth a shot. >> you think it makes a difference on the last day, the day people are voting for a candidate to show up in pennsylvania and ohio? >> here's the thing about that. in those other states, early voting is well under way and most of each sides' votes have already been banked. pennsylvania doesn't have a big early voting program. so everyone that's going to vote in pennsylvania is going to vote on tuesday. so he might think, maybe this is my chance, i have a captive audience there because obama hasn't been there much. and i've got more votes that are available to me in pennsylvania. >> we're all spending so much time thinking about ohio. but is there another state you're looking at closely right now? >> the thing i'm looking at is some of these states where hispanics are a risi

look at the numbers in florida, 16% of the voting public will be latino. nevada at 15.1%. colorado 15.7%. swing states where you're winning by a margin of 3-1 this can really shift those tightly tightly-fought states. answer for me, why was mitt romney so tone deaf on the issue of immigration? >> well, you know, it's not just mitt romney. it's the republican party really. when they had the tea party waved and most of the moderate republicans were swept out of office because they lost primary elections to these very extreme tea party candidate tea party candidates are completely wrong on the issue of immigration and they're amped up with their rhetoric. i think the republican party has a lot of soul searching to do. here in the state of california republican registration has dipped below 30% for the first tame. they're quickly becoming a permanent minority party. they've completely missed the boat on immigration. we're a country of immigrants. the majority of people regardless of their political affiliation think that immigration is good for this country, and it revitalizes this countr

. >> dana: nevada, your favorite state. >> greg: i love nevada. i spent time in carson city against my will. >> bob: chicken ranch. >> greg: no, bob. i have nothing on nevada. tom arnold is not voting for his ex-wife rosanne as nominee for peace and freedom party. this is your ex-wife. support her. >> dana: peace and freedom party? >> greg: the i want more marijuana party. >> bob: what twitter are you wearing snowear today? >> greg: this is in the spirit of money. i want people start making money and get rich again. that's why i'm wearing this. >> bob: one thing, colorado, other states voting on the legalization of marijuana today. draw the youth vote. >> greg: did they get off the couch? >> dana: can you offer the munchies at the polling booth? >> eric: >> bob: sure! >> eric: throw this out. we will know, we may know the fate of the next president. ohio, pennsylvania, virginia, florida. when you know those, it is pretty, pretty locked in when we know those four. >> dana: here we go. when we come back, we'll check in with campaign carl cameron spending the day at romney headquarters in bost

strong about our operations, particularly in states like ohio, iowa, north carolina, nevada with americans are actually casting ballots already and the president has a 2-1 advantage amongst those who have already voted. but as the romney campaign and the super pacs are on the air and we're showing that we have the ability to go deep and broad as well and we're not leaving a single vote on the table. we feel great about our ground game. i was watching the bill clinton/president obama rally last night and it had all the feel of classic bill clinton. the president got pumped up by that as well. bill clinton lost his voice, but that didn't slow him down or shorten his speech at all. we heard everything, including don't stop thinking about tomorrow. there was a lot of nostalgia going on. tell me about that relationship. because it's been fraught with difficulty and we all know what it was like four years ago. there was a lot of tension and it didn't get repaired that easily. >> yesterday it was great, nobody makes a closing argument better than bill clinton does. andrea, somebody

. >> and i have nevada in there. you live on the border of nevada and california. demographically gone for the republicans right now? >> this is a state that republicans should have won if we had the same hispanic turnout of the vote percentage under president bush, under john mccain. mitt romney would be ahead in nevada. it's not the case. president obama is going to win nevada. >> anybody here think the president will lose iowa? >> i think he's going to win iowa. and i changed my opinion on that. i thought he was going to lose iowa. >> you believe iowa. where do you fall? >> the president. >> look what this does here. this puts -- we put it up to 259 so th so then he's is 11 away. anybody thinks he's going to win florida? so you give romney this, florida. colorado, i think it will be the closest state in the country. >> i agree. >> where does it go? >> romney. >> romney wins. >> really close but romney. >> it might all come down to ohio. >> it may. and virginia we have sitting he here. so this could mean to me as a realistic scenario and i won't make you force these, hiohio, virginia

on tuesday. >> doug: and nevada close. >> sean: and same thing there with early voting. >> a little more complicated picture there but the republicans are in the hunt there. >> sean: prediction? i stand by what i said thursday not the "wall street journal." i think it will be close which is 51-48 which could be a two to two and a half point race and romney gets 279 to 281 or 286 in the electoral college. >> i think it is a two paint race or three paint race. karl rove good to see you. we will be watching all election night. is history repeating itself. the images of long lines. by the way, five hours on long island. rationing of gas in new jersey. the obama presidency is looking a lot like jimmy carter's. remember how the carter years ended? and what did the president mean when said that voters should vote out of revenge? we will check in with governor palin and much more, straight ahead. these fellas used capital one venture miles for a golf getaway. double miles you can actually use... but mr. single miles can't join his friends because he's getting hit with blackouts. shame on you. no

to iowa, colorado, nevada. a bold prediction. he may reach 300 electoral votes. that's bold prediction for final hours. they believe he will win it. >> election ed, thank you for being here on "the five." greg, to you first. the crowd situation. i was watching romney today. people waiting in line. last night, people were complaining they got frostbit frostbite. mitt romney gathering crowds with himself. when you are president obama you bring out jay-z and springstein. >> greg: saying i'm a lousy president but i'm cooler than the other guy. look at the brainless celebrities i'm talking to. the other guy talks policy. point out a maxim. never trust a man over 50 who still has an earring. people that he surrounds himself, they dress like aging pirates. you are an adult. thigh think they are outlaws. >> dana: it's like watching a male enhancement pill ad. if i looked at anyone else, i might get embarrassed. jay-z, the lyrics, talk about the war on recommend. i'm not going to be specificbe, i am letting people rhyme. britches and clothes. >> kimberly: when you see this -- this -- >> dana: w

snow in hamilton and maybe snow on diablo and certainlily low snow levels in sierra nevada. dropping down to 3000 feet. this is unusual to be this warm fast. forecast highs, you see 70s, 73 in fairfield and 73 in walnut creek. >>> in the past 20 minutes, polls closed in two swing states, florida and new hampshire. more election results are coming into the ktvu newsroom, we will have the latest. >> the polls have closed in ohio, probably the most closely watched, no republican has ever won the presidency without taking ohio. here are the current numbers with one percent of the precincts reporting. president obama up 58 to 42% over mitt romney. >> now in the midst of the evening commute and people heading to the polls after work. let's go to john sacka. you are watching the activity at a precinct, right? >> reporter: yes, the traffic here has definitely picked up in the last hour as people have gotten off of work and come down to vote. you can see everybody around here. we are at the salvation army in clayton. there are three different voting precincts in operation. people have been c

to pump more money, more stimulus into the economy in hard-hit states like nevada, florida, ohio, colorado, pennsylvania, california than any institution. they may be more important than the fed. we have to look at money and politics. >> this is interesting. the comments from all four speakers. i want to ask about a demographic group that none of you touched on. one out of every five americans has a disability. 51% of likely voters said they have a family member with a disability. at the national press club when there was an opportunity for the romney campaign and the obama campaign to send someone to speak about disability issues, the romney campaign chose not to attend and chose not to issue a position paper on disabilities. i wanted to ask why, given that one out of five americans has a disability, 51% of american likely voters has a family member or a loved one, why is there not more conversation about that demographic within our society and election process? >> the short answer is in an election that revolving around the role of government, if your for small government, why would you

, ones we know, florida, new hampshire, iowa, virginia, nevada, colorado, new hampshire, i think ohio belongs in that group. i put it on myself i should have put it in there a few days before now. >> mark halperin, take a look at nbc news poll, iowa, president up but wisconsin and new hampshire, we're talking about a really closely fought race. >> based on the totality of the public and private polling the only us in is on governor romney to depp street get to 270 electoral votes. i think governor romney starts with a challenge which is florida, north carolina, and colorado. if he can win those three, and i think he's got a decent chance in all, although the president hasn't given up on colorado and florida, then he needs to find a couple other -- a couple of options, one is to just win ohio. if he can't win ohio, and virginia also, he needs to win virginia also, okay, if he can't win ohio he needs to find another way. states of the three polls you showed as well as pennsylvania, michigan, he needs to offset a loss in ohio. ohio's the simplest and most competitive the reason they're l

think we're going to win iowa, wisconsin, we're going to win nevada, we're going to win new hampshire. i think we've got an even chance of winning virginia and florida. so it could be a big win. >> don't just vote. bring your mom. bring your dad. bring your cousin. knock on the door of your neighbor. because let me tell you something, the middle class depends on it. it literally depends on it. >> the vice president took on mitt romney's latest lie about jeep sending jobs to china. >> scare the hell -- scare the heck out of these people and it's flat false. absolutely flat fall. it's the most cynical play i've seen and, you know, there is an editorial in the denver post saying this goes to character. it's not just a lie, but it goes to character. >> while most of the attention is on ohio, a record breaking crowd gathered in concord, new hampshire. president obama was joined by one of the best retail politicians in the business. former president bill clinton. >> 20 years and nine months ago, new hampshire began the chance for me to become president. i have worked very hard in this campaign

, michelle. 6:11. >>> today is the second day of a strike against raley's in northern california and nevada. it happened after contract talks broke off yesterday. issues are medical benefits, elimination of premium pay for working sundays, and a proposed pay freeze. this is the first strike in the 77-year history of the company. >>> time now 6:12. why notorious mobster whitey bulger was rushed to the hospital. >> a tragedy at a zoo. i 2-year-old mauled to death by wild dogs. how he got in the cage. >> and on the hook, how much muni will have to pay for the bus torched in the wild world series celebrations. thi he story of eves. [ eves ] years ago, i hurt my shoulder drag racing. that's when i decided to take it easy, so i took up hang gliding. [ female announcer ] a grandpa who refuses to grow up. [ eves ] the pain was bad, but the thought of not being a hang glider pilot was worse. [ female announcer ] that's when eves turned to sutter health's palo alto medical foundation. [ eves ] the doctors that i dealt with, they got it, that this old guy wanted to return as a hang glider pilot. they

florida, virginia, colorado, and wisconsin next. but first first the battle for nevada. polls show president obama has anage there. while the romney camp still says the state is in play. dan springer live in las vegas tonight. dan? >> that's right, shep. but even a conservative columnist here says nevada is leaning obama and governor romney is down to his final strike early voting heavily favored the president. 48,000 more democrats voted over the two week period than republicans. that is a big hill to climb on tuesday. especially when you consider it's estimated 70% of all the voters have been cast. republicans know they need a big turn out in the rural parts of the state and a decisive win among independence. not impossible but about as likely, perhaps, as pulling an inside straight that is the latest from nevada. we'll have more coming up from other battleground states on "the fox report." , suspension and agility. the only trail capable side-by sides, featuring the ultimate value, r 570. the only 4-passenge sport machines, led by the all-new rzr xp 4 and the undisputed king of

. republicans will push back. we'll see what happens on election day tomorrow. most pros will tell you, nevada likely to go the president's way. if i give him nevada, iowa and wisconsin, 259/206. what does governor romney have to do? he must win the state of florida. tonight the democrats say we think we're still in play. again, if you give them truth serum, which ones are they likely to lose, they put florida high on the list. the obama operation says watch us turn out the vote tomorrow. let's assume it stays with its normal republican dna, we'll keep it there. virginia is a must win for governor romney. this is another state where the obama campaign says we are wired on the ground. we can do it. the key will be the northern vir suburbs. for the sake of argument, i know democrats are getting mad at me, i'm going to give it to governor romney. if we do that, he gets florida, virginia, this could shall a decisive state. for the sake of argument, the obama campaign says we have this state. watch what happens tomorrow, especially in evangelical areas. i'm going to this hypothetical to show you ho

, in virginia, even in ohio what they saw as a lead or slight lead now has slipped. novemb nevada off the table. it's changed this race. charlie and norah? >> political director john dickerson and national journal white house correspondent major garrett have been with us throughout this campaign. welcome. >> good to be with you. >> an exciting race. >> indeed, it is. >> let me start with john. what's the pathway, possible pathway for governor romney? >> well, let's start context. if we look at the map and we assign those states that are red states and blue states to the two candidates, president obama starts with 237. romney starts with 191. the president's already got a head start. and that means that if you look at all the possible scenarios, president obama has about 431 ways he can get to 270. mitt romney had just 76. let's look at mitt romney. the best possible scenario for him is that he wins florida. we'll give florida to him. then we'll give him the other big one, ohio. 18 electoral votes. then 15 in north carolina. let's give him 13 in virginia. still not there yet. 266. this gives you

is looking wet and colder in the sierra nevada this will translate into snow. the national weather service already potioned a winter weather advisory. five to ten inches of snow expected 59,000, gusty -- at 5,000 feet. tomorrow afternoon, warm. on the peninsula, 77 in millbrae. mountain view, 80. 75 on the coast and pacifica. a warm day. daly city, sunset district, mid-70s, south city, downtown san francisco, 77. north bay, the fog is getting closer. 73 at bodega bay. east bay, temperatures close to today's levels. 79 in oakland. inland, you'll feel the warmth again. 80 concord. for the monterey bay, warm 76-degree day in monterey, could see records. the election day looking great. cooler wednesday. cold showers thursday, may see thunder and lightning and small hail. a few showers on friday, and then keying cold conditions expected the morning over the weekend with cool conditions during the day. temperatures will take a good 20-degree drop from tomorrow to friday and saturday. mike is here 4:30 to 7:00 with any changes. >> dan: coming up next, the famous cross missing for two years, and

wet and colder in the sierra nevada this will translate into snow. the national weather service already potioned a winter weather advisory. five to ten inches of snow expected 59,000, gusty -- at 5,000 feet. tomorrow afternoon, warm. on the peninsula, 77 in millbrae. mountain view, 80. 75 on the coast and pacifica. a warm day. daly city, sunset district, mid-70s, south city, downtown san francisco, 77. north bay, the fog is getting closer. 73 at bodega bay. east bay, temperatures close to today's levels. 79 in oakland. inland, you'll feel the warmth again. 80 concord. for the monterey bay, warm 76-degree day in monterey, could see records. the election day looking great. cooler wednesday. cold showers thursday, may see thunder and lightning and small hail. a few showers on friday, and then keying cold conditions expected the morning over the weekend with cool conditions during the day. temperatures will take a good 20-degree drop from tomorrow to friday and saturday. mike is here 4:30 to 7:00 with any changes. >> dan: coming up next, the famous cross missing for two years, and

fine. same with nevada. areas of ohio look clear, too. there's talk of the nor'easter heading through the mid atlantic and off the east coast. it doesn't look to be a horrible storm. regardless fshl regardless, power outages in, we will see a chance of showers out there. but precip amounts should be very light. everything looks good, lynn, pretty much across the country for election day. couldn't ask for anything much better. >> bill, thanks so much. >>> in addition to the white house werks v, we'll take a look at the hotly contested senate races. plus let's go back to nbc's democracy plaza right here at the heart of rockefeller center. you can also check us out on the web at nbcnews.com. you're watching "early today." ♪ ♪ >>> a look there for you. bruce springsteen performing at an obama campaign event last night in columbus, ohio. speaking of the boss, it was in his home state of new jersey where officials are making sure voters can cast their ballots despite the devastation from hurricane sandy. voters whose polling places were flooded were busy filling out forms yesterday to c

reform. obama landed in nevada now. he has three stops in wisconsin. six in ohio. they thought they'd have the state locked up but they don't. six stops in ohio tells us while he has a lead, they are nervous about that. he will hit it six times. he is rolling out big celebrities. eva longoria in nevada. sheila e. she was banging on the drums. we're told on monday he will be in battleground states with jay-z and bruce springstein. you talked about david axelrod saying that are not going to lose michigan and not losing minnesota, not losing pennsylvania. if they do, he will shave off his mustache. new information on the shaving front. today, jay carney showed up to work on air force one without shaving says he is not going to shave between now and election day. superstition. he thinks it will help the president win re-election. we know jay carney will shave after election day. will david axelrod shave after election day? it may help us learn whether or not mr. romney will win or the president will win. >> dana: thank you. good thing when i was press secretary i didn't have such a rule

will be in wisconsin, where he is right now, with nevada, colorado, ohio, iowa, virginia, and florida. of course, they're sending their number one surrogates, the vp nominee, out where they're not going. is this the map, centered in ohio, virginia, and florida, is it still where the action is? >> it is for governor romney for sure. it's always been the case that governor romney needs to win florida, needs to win virginia, and pretty much needs to win ohio. even then he still needs to pick up another state somewhere along the way. you can see in his map that he's spending months of his time in florida, virginia, and ohio and a little bit of time in one of those other states that he thinks he might be able to get a pickup, whether that's wisconsin, whether that's colorado. those are the states he thinks he has the best chance. he's not spending time in iowa. he'll spend two different trips -- ending his campaign in new hampshire. he has an event in new hampshire over the weekend. he thinks he might be able to pick up there. that tells you a lot. i know a lot of republicans had hoped governor romney woul

to pick up pennsylvania. we have a good shot in virginia, new hampshire, new mexico, nevada, that's the pathway to victory for john mccain. we're excited. we're hoping to see a lot of people out there in chicago on election night with barack obama experiencing a long, cold night, that john mccain won. >> it's nice he wishes physical discomfort on his enemies. but notice what exactly he was so confidently predicting there. the day before the election in 2008, it was mitt romney. these were his predictions for states that john mccain was definitely going to win. >> john mccain is leading in the states he's got to lead in like ohio and florida. we'll pick up pennsylvania. we think we have a good shot at virginia, new hampshire, new mexico, nevada. that's the pathway to victory for john mccain. >> e see how all those states were blue? his confident predictions that john mccain was going to win all those states in 2008 were wrong in every single instance. they lost every single one of those states. even though it seemed like he was going to win all of those states the day before the el

make of virginia? what do you make of wisconsin? what do you make of colorado, nevada, iowa, new hampshire? >> well, look, the easiest way to look at this is even if you look at the real clear politics average which includes a lot of the goofy quinnipiac poles and marist polls. the republicans are winning, indiana,, north carolina, virginia and florida. in fact, if you take a look at that all of the mccain states plus 30s that they are waning and i do think they are going to win, republicans are going to win all four of these states. is they are at 248. then you look at ohio which i think the early vote numbers are clear indication of of what is going to happen in ohio. that s another 18 electoral votes. and then colorado which is, you know, is in the rcp average just under water, 9/10 of a percent. but that is largely because of a couple of outliar polls that have huge numbers more democrats than republicans. i think we are going to win colorado and that gets you 275. and we are going to pick up out of ohio, new hampshire, nevada or minnesota, pennsylvania or wisconsin we are go

in states like texas and nevada are hoping to have the tax increase because every rich person in the state is going to continue to move out. i do not think it's going to pass, i think the people of california is going to turn this down. jerry brown, the governor has been pushing this, saying we're going to have to rip through the schools and the police departments if we don't pass this. i do not think it's going to pass, if it does, paul, i think it could be the end of california as an economic dynamo, truly, the small businesses and the wealth producers of that state will move out if they put in place a 13% income tax. >> you know-- go ahead. >> california should look at what happened here in illinois. in 2011, little noi raised corporate taxes, raised income taxes, guess what? in the next two months, unemployment surged and businesses tried to flee the state. a real mess. >> paul: and choice seems to be if you're going to put any pressure on the politicians in sacramento to reform, a lot of businesses, jerry brown has been-- they've been chipping in, they think they're going down. and th

important. but what about states like michigan, nevada, pennsylvania, how much are they in play? especially since pennsylvania, president obama won that one, but he's not apparently taking for granted clinton will be campaigning there in his behalf? >> pennsylvania has a million more registered democrats than republicans. so it is a state that republicans have tried to contest in the last few presidential elections and have failed. but there's always sort of enough of an opportunity there that they end up making a last-minute push there. the other thing to remember is that when you're campaigning in western pennsylvania, you're hitting the tv markets in even iowa. so you do get a little bit of a t two-fer there as well. >> going to be a crazy busy couple of days for karen, for everyone. >>> the race for president is in a dead heat, so where do you think the candidates are spending a lot of their time other than ohio? there isn't another place they're spending their time. ohio, ohio, ohio. we'll go live. ...and in the tiniest details. ♪ and sometimes both. nature valley granola thins pack

: colorado, florida, ohio, new hampshire, north carolina, michigan, nevada, pennsylvania, virginia, and wisconsin. bob, i point out dana referenced a column, who thinks it will be 315 to 223 for obama and rollins was in the green room and he said he is the best in the business and he has never gotten it wrong. what do you make of that prediction in bob: it is significant. but he has gotten it wrong a few times. if i were in, and he is doing what he is doing, now, he clearly has a side and i would look at the happy side, the happy side from my side and right now obama is ahead in eight of the 11 target points. >> but democrats trail in target states i mentioned but especially virginia, ohio, iowa and nevada. early absentee voting is not where it was for democrats in 2008. >> we had a thing back and forth and every single one of these is a toss up. each one. including pennsylvania. but, tomorrow, mitt romney 8 be in virginia, virginia, ohio, and new hampshire. look at states, and he has virginia, he has to work on ohio, and new hampshire is a toss up. bob: why he is going there? >> h

that confident tonight? >> at the end of the day it all comes down to turnout. in a state like nevada, more than 70% will vote by election day we have a 70,000 vote lead there. we have more than 100,000 vote advantage in the bank at this time. we signed up more than 6,600 volunteer shifts for the get out the vote program. it all comes down to turnout in the final hours. >> well, you have the turnout, it looks like. if these early voting hours have been cut, how much concern is that to you? >> well, we have a voter protection team on the ground and right here in chicago that took quick action in florida yesterday. miami-dade and palm beach announced early voting tomorrow. so we're going to make sure that everybody's vote counts. if you're in line, stay in line. we're going to make sure it happens through the final hours. >> the romney campaign says it has numbers showing that they're going to win ohio. is that a bluff? >> well, i think we heard a lot of bluffing from the romney campaign for days that says they have an intensity advantage on their side. look no further than the fact that mitt romn

map look up? >> i object to the tossups. a bunch of the states aren't tossup. nevada, i put it in the democratic column. a tossup. there it is. >> these were the rules. >> exactly. but you made the rules. owe didn't deliver your own map. >> 285 for romney 253 for obama. romney carries mccain state and florida. i thinkness and wisconsin, potential pennsylvania are knife's edge states. inness, up for nevada. >> i think significantly and we have, there are true tossups we can argue. we agree on 46 states. roughly. there are only four states we disagree about. >> again, if you believe the turn-out miles that most poll show, obama would win by 300. five states. >> yeah. >> colorado, iowa, virginia, ohio, new hampshire. otherwise we agree. when we're forced to -- >> wrap up with this. we do this ipad app. >> so we want to pick some closest. the closeest to karl is mark alcott who had the same map. if you put it up, we will send mark something. what are we sending anymore >> out graphed copy of my book. >> okay. there you go. >> i'm sending one to him, too. closest to joe's map is

endorsements from all 4 major newspapers there. nevada both close at 10:00. the president has a small but steady lead there. as the numbers are coming in maybe you can help determine who is going to win. >>> how will they resinate with viewers? >> the two closing arguments i would rather be making the type of one that romney is making than the one that president obama is making. the president is burdened by a record he has basically not done what he said he would do. that is a huge problem for him. so necessarily there is a larger component to dump it on the other guy in his closing argument than it is in romney. romney talking about hope and change. that's what obama said four years ago. that's a more uplifting final argument to make. romney looks happier and comfortable with himself making it. the president seems a little weary a little horse and glad to have this over with. i think that's what romney is doing and saying may be a little more attractive. >> if the president does lose reelection what would be the reason? bill o'reilly has his take on that a little bit lart. >> it is t

could win in colorado. but obama looks to have nevada locked up despite the awful unemployment situation in that state. our pal larry sabato teaches at the university of virginia is predicting an obama win, 290 electoral votes to romney's 248 if obama -- if obama is the winner, that tally sounds about right. but carl rove sees it the opposite way. mr. rove will be here in a moment. of course dick morris continues to maintain that romney will win big. carrying pennsylvania and ohio, which would assure a romney victory. both morris and sabato will be on this program wednesday. again, i cannot make a prediction tonight. it pains pee. i don't like it. but i have to be honest. i can't do it. because even at this late date, some americans could still vote either way. both candidates still have a fighting chance. and that's the memo. next on the run down. the aforementioned carl rove will tell me how tragically wrong i am or something. and then, krauthammer, hume, powers, march will all weighen in n. on the fact tour tomorrow. we'll be right back. >> bill: what will happen in the presidential v

before we start to see results out west, but beyond nevada which we don't think is much of a toss-up as we once thought it was, the romney folks don't feel that great about nevada, so most of the action is on the east coast and in the midwest. of the states that have been called, it's been a good night for barack obama. he won pennsylvania, looks like he's going to win michigan. he won wisconsin huge. i think the one we've not talked enough about is new hampshire. the ap has called new hampshire for barack obama. that was a state that mitt romney thought he had a really good chance of winning, neighbors, massachusetts -- >> [inaudible] >> does he have a house there? >> i think so. >> talk about new hampshire. >> just looking at the exit polls, just unpacking them a little bit, and people are going to be looking at whether mitt romney really had the momentum that he seemed to or that they claimed. you're going to hear republicans say you heard former governor haley barbour over the weekend saying the storm had really blunted his momentum. if the president's handling of the storm wa

of possible voter fraud, and election irregularities. let's start in nevada where the clark county republican party saying someone is sending out fake robo calls under the name the republican conservative caucus, and they are endorsing democrats. meanwhile in las vegas authorities have arrested a woman for allegedly voting twice. they say that roxanne ruben voted a week ago today and tried to do it a later in the week. she is a registered republican. in oregon a county clerk is under investigation for ballot tampering. the clerk is suspected of filling in the blanks that voters left empty on their ballots. oregon's secretary of state kay brown is sending in election monitors. >> i want or bega organ citizenoregon citizens to know we are taking this very seriously. >> in ohio there are questions about this vacant lot. it turns out 18 people are registered to vote from here. the owner of the lot tells us a trailer park was taken out three years ago. the ohio integrity project has challenged those because they believe they could be used for voter fraud. >> it makes me angry that nobody has done

for democrats. virginia, montana are important if the democrats could pick off arizona or nevada. but things have been breaking for the democrats the past couple of weeks, i think. >> brown: you haven't had a chance to talk about missouri. >> missouri is a very interesting state where democrats hadn't been earning more than 50% of the votes even when winning because there were other factors. and and there is a third party candidate helping her a little bit. one interesting thing about deb fisher, it's the first time nebraska is sending a woman to the senate. and in new hampshire, the associated press called the democratic governor won there. she will be the only female democratic governor in the country next year because she's won. >> yes. >> brown: is that something you didn't know? did we stump you? >> there is a sitting woman democratic governor right now, but she chose not to seek reelection in north carolina. >> right, so in 2013. >> brown: and back to you, glen and judy. >> ifill: we find it very interesting to see how all this is shaking out partly because we see what's happening on t

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